The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century

Abstract

This paper analyzes reconstructed data on temperature, precipitation, and extreme drought events in the late fifteenth century in Northern China, as well as historical records on population migration, financial crises, military farms, and national decisions during the Ming dynasty. We specifically examine the socio-economic effects of extreme drought events, which led to long-term changes causing the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Our results indicate that the first Cold Valley and the frequent extreme drought events of the Little Ice Age in the late fifteenth century led to a sharp reduction in the military farm system. Extreme droughts caused a large-scale population migration in Northern China and led to the collapse of the tax payment and corvee systems. To cope with the extreme droughts, the local financial reserve was reduced by 51.3%. As a result, local finances became extremely tight. To alleviate fiscal pressures, the court was forced to change the socioeconomic model implemented in the beginning of the Ming dynasty to the corvee equalization method and silver coin tax collection method. These new measures resulted in a decline of the dynasty’s control over households, to the abandonment of military farms, and to reduced control over the country’s social risks. This article explains the mechanism through which climate events led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty. We specifically explore the relationship between socioeconomic transformation and extreme drought in the late fifteenth century in order to better understand the relationship between climate change and social response.