The Socioeconomic Determinants of Natural Resource Conflict: Minerals and Maoist Insurgency in India

Abstract

This article analyzes a unique district-level data set to demonstrate that mineral abundance increased the probably of Maoist insurgency in India over the past three decades. Nevertheless, we show that this finding must be qualified in two respects. First, mineral abundance has a much stronger effect on the probability of insurgency after the liberalization of the mining sector in the mid-1990s, which precipitated the rapid expansion of mining and related activities. Second, mineral abundance has a much stronger effect on the probability of insurgency in the central Indian tribal belt, where communities have strong symbolic and material links with nature. Our analysis contributes to the broader debate on resource conflicts—which is largely informed by cross-national statistical analyses. It suggests that abundant natural resources do not mechanically increase the probability of insurgency. Rather, economic policy and social structure play a crucial but overlooked role in mediating this relationship.