The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia

Abstract

ObjectivesTo estimate the expected socio-economic value of booster vaccination in terms of averted deaths and averted closures of businesses and schools using simulation modelling. MethodsThe value of booster vaccination in Indonesia is estimated by comparing simulated societal costs under a twelve-month, 187-million–dose Moderna booster vaccination campaign to costs without boosters. The costs of an epidemic and its mitigation consist of lost lives, economic closures and lost education; cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation is chosen for each scenario. ResultsThe cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation depends on the availability of vaccines: the differences between the two scenarios are 14 to 19 million years of in-person education and $153 to $204 billion in economic activity. The value of the booster campaign ranges from $2,500 ($1,400-$4,100) to $2,800 ($1,700-$4,600) per dose in the first year, depending on life-year valuations. ConclusionsThe societal benefits of booster vaccination are substantial. Much of the value of vaccination resides in the reduced need for costly non-pharmaceutical mitigation. We propose cost minimisation as a tool for policy decision-making and valuation of vaccination, taking into account all socio-economic costs, and not averted deaths alone.