Abstract
The social viability of the Brazilian National Alcohol Programme is discussed. First, the national parameters for Brazil are estimated and based on these values alternative appraisal procedures are developed to determine the social cost of ethanol. The main data base is given by the breakdown of the cost of production of ethanol in three Brazilian states, namely Sao Paulo, Pernambuco and Goias. The first two states are traditional producers, whereas Goias provides an indication of the programme's viability in areas where sugarcane production has only recently been expanded. Finally, a sensitivity analysis based on the probable medium- and long-term development of the programme is undertaken, including trends in both cost effectiveness and the behaviour of international oil prices.
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