Abstract

This article analyses the social cost of imported oil from both a conceptual and empirical perspective. A conceptual framework of the oil import premium — the difference between social and private marginal cost of imported oil — is developed. It is argued that there are two components to the premium: the long-run effect of changes in import demand on the world oil price, and the external costs of oil supply disruption as related to changes in oil use. Using this framework as a reference point, an evaluation of quantitative estimates of the premium is presented. The estimates span a wide range, from near zero to well over $100 per barrel, and are shown to be highly sensitive to behavioural assumptions about the world oil market. The article concludes by noting that an oil import fee is likely to be the best policy instrument to capture the first component of the premium, and a strategic petroleum reserve, the best policy instrument to capture the second component.

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