The Social Context of Fertility Decline in Thailand

Abstract

Thailands fertility decline was rapid and the social forces behind it are not well understood. The objective of this paper is to examine the fertility transition in terms of the social context of decision making and individual characteristics. Structural determinants of the social context in the multilevel models are theoretically designed to offset the ad hoc selection of indicators. Data were obtained from the micro data files of the 1970 and 1980 Census of Thailand by province and matched with own children data. Aggregate and individual level analyses were conducted. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to assess the effects of social context on individual fertility. The childbearing period for women was 15-44 years. Contextual indicators were an index of women status (maternal and paternal educational level and age disparity between couples) and index of children roles (school enrollment and not in the labor force) and the percentage of never married 20-24 year old women and the infant mortality rate (Brass method). The spatial pattern of fertility levels and decline is characterized and the components of fertility decline are identified. Marital structure changes for women 25-34 years affected 90% of the change in total fertility; the changing proportions married varied by region with Bangkok central and southern regions showing the greatest change. The broad pattern remained the same by region. There was a small shift to later age at marriage and a decline in older ages childbearing. Changing educational composition had little effect on fertility transition. The multilevel models used a dummy variable for denoting time period. There were 3 models and 3 parity goups per model. The effects were negative in the model with the period variable for all parities and greatest for parity >2. The log odds of the probability of having >2 vs. 0 children was reduced between 1965-69 and 1975-79. Women were less likely to proceed with a 2nd birth in the later period and women in middle and later childbearing were less likely to space births closely together. When controlling for contextual variables the sign changed for women with 1 child. The results show that social context is a significant factor in fertility decline independent of and in addition to individual characteristics. Provinces that had rapidly improved the status of women were more likely to have lower fertility regardless of individual characteristics. The effects of womens status on fertility did not vary across levels of individual social position.