The Small Margins Problem: How Abolishing the Electoral College Could Create a Future Election Crisis

Abstract

This essay examines a potential unintended consequence of abolishing the Electoral College: the difficulty of identifying a national popular vote winner in the event of a close election. Under the Electoral College, the precise margin of victory is irrelevant in all but a handful of swing states decided by a small number of votes. The vast majority of states award all of their electoral votes to the candidate who finishes in first place, regardless of the candidate’s margin of victory. But if the United States elected the president through a nationwide popular vote, the precise vote totals in all 50 states would become crucially important. As recent elections have demonstrated, however, the quality of election administration in many states is sorely lacking. In a close presidential election, it might take several weeks for the states to produce an accurate and final vote total. California is a case in point. In 2016, California did not ascertain its official vote tabulation until mid-December, one month after election day. California’s slow vote-counting process would plunge the country into limbo in the event of a close nationwide popular vote. Recounts and litigation would likely further delay a conclusive determination of the popular vote. In such a scenario, the nation might not be able to ascertain an election winner before the January 20 inauguration date. Consequently, this essay concludes that a nationwide popular vote for president should not be adopted until Congress and the states establish uniform standards for tabulating presidential votes in a timely and accurate manner.