The slow-release effect of recycling on rapid demand growth of critical metals from EV batteries up to 2050: Evidence from China

Abstract

In the severe situation of global warming, the low-carbon transition in the transportation sector requires critical metals, which have been in considerable demand in China, posing serious challenges to sustainable supply of resources. Using dynamic material flow analysis model, this study predicted the demand for critical metals used in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for electric vehicles (EVs) in China by capturing factors of two dimensions like EV market size and LIB technology path, and then assessed the slow-release effect of recycling on critical metal demand from 2010 to 2050 in seven selected scenarios. The results showed that the contradiction among metal demand, reserves, and production brought about by the development of EVs is very severe. Cobalt depletion can be addressed by switching to low-cobalt or cobalt-free LIB technology paths, which could lead to a much larger increase in nickel demand. Under different scenarios, the effect of recycling on metal demand would be different in the short and long term.