The Slippery Slopes of Climate Engineering Research

Abstract

Climate engineering research attracts Slippery Slope concerns – the idea that initial research will inevitably lead to inappropriate deployment. Some have dismissed it as an unrealistic, unproductive critique. However, extant climate engineering discussions of the Slippery Slope discuss an unorganised set of different causal mechanisms with little detail. These range from technological cost reduction, to the creation of special interest lobby groups, to normalisation across society and policymakers. Dismissing the Slippery Slope may be premature if its causal nature is unclear, especially given the potentially high impacts and controversy of global climate engineering deployment. Disaggregating and clarifying the Slippery Slope can reduce unnecessary ambiguity, promote productive debate, and highlight risks that require further attention. Drawing on previous Slippery Slope literature and mechanisms of change from range of disciplines, this paper creates a typology of Slippery Slopes for application to stratospheric aerosol injection and other emerging technologies. Initial research can lead to deployment by 1) sparking price-performance improvements and sunk cost biases, 2) contributing to normalisation and legitimisation, 3) altering power structures, 4) sparking hype, and 5) incrementally progressing development. These feedback loops may currently seem unlikely, but unforeseen dynamics could still trigger rapid development and implementation of stratospheric aerosol injection. Conversely, there is no guarantee one of these Slippery Slopes will occur. The point is that they could – the future is too uncertain to fully dismiss non-linear change, particularly for high impact and accessible technologies like stratospheric aerosol injection. This can provide direction and clarity for effective technology governance and Slippery Slope discussion. Furthermore, this typology differentiates the Slippery Slope from lock-in and highlights their interaction points. Slippery Slope dynamics are processes that can (but are not guaranteed to) lead to different types of lock-in. Lock-in is when a technology is entrenched in existing sociotechnical systems. Given the risks of unchecked undesired lock-in, lock-in is a state to be encouraged instead of avoided.