Abstract
Abstract The performance of ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is investigated by examining the probability distribution of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe. The probability score (or half Brier score) is used to evaluate the quality of probabilistic forecasts of a single binary event. The skill of an EPS is assessed by comparing its performance, in terms of the probability score, to the performance of a reference probabilistic forecast. The reference forecast is based on the control forecast of the system under consideration, using model error statistics to estimate a probability distribution. A decomposition of the skill score is applied in order to distinguish between the two main aspects of the forecast performance: reliability and resolution. The contribution of the ensemble mean and the ensemble spread to the performance of an EPS is evaluated by comparing the skill score to the skill score of a probabilistic forecast based on the EPS mean, using model error statistics to estimate a probabili...
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