Abstract

In this paper, we consider a random vector $$X=\left( X_1,X_2\right) $$ following a multivariate Skew Normal distribution and we provide an explicit formula for the expected value of X conditioned to the event $$X \le \overline{X}$$, with $$\overline{X} \in \mathbb {R}^2$$. Such a conditional expectation has an intuitive interpretation in the context of risk measures.

Highlights

  • The employment of nonstandard probability distributions in financial risk theory represents a growing field of research, leading to either theoretical additions as well as relevant practical implications

  • A relevant role is played by the Skew Normal distributions

  • Skew Normal distributions are able to capture several aspects of applied science, meaning that they are suitable for a wide range of application, including finance and management science

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Summary

Introduction

The employment of nonstandard probability distributions in financial risk theory represents a growing field of research, leading to either theoretical additions as well as relevant practical implications (see e.g. the monograph [20] and the recent contributions [16, 19]). As far as the multivariate framework is concerned, scanty attention has been paid to an explicit formulation of the expectation of such random variables conditioned to the fact that a prefixed barrier is not ever crossed Such a conditional expectation, known as tail conditional expectation, has been calculated in Bernardi ([8], 2013) for univariate Skew Normal distributions and their mixtures. As recently noted by Bernardi et al ([10], 2017), the TCE= risk measure suffers the lack of the consistency property since it does not preserve the stochastic ordering induced by the bivariate distribution This is especially true for high values of the correlation between variables.

The bivariate Skew Normal distribution
Calculation of the TCE
Conclusions and further developments

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