The size-distribution of scattered disk TNOs from that of JFCs between 0.2 and 15 km effective radius

Abstract

We investigate the differential size–frequency distribution (SFD) of Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) in order to determine whether they are primordial accreted objects or collisional fragments as suggested by current models of the evolution of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs). We develop a list of effective radii and their uncertainties for 161 active JFCs from published sources and compute the observed differential size–frequency distribution using a Probability Index technique. The radii range from 0.2 to 15.4km and average 1.9km. The peak of the distribution is near 1.0km. This is then corrected for the effects of observational selection using a model published earlier by Meech et al. (Meech, K.J., Hainaut, O.R., Marsden, B.G. [2004]. Icarus 170, 463–491). We estimate that the total number of active JFCs between 0.2 and 15.4km is approximately 2300 indicating that our current sample of the of active JFC population is far from complete. The active JFC size–frequency distribution, over the range from 0.6 to 10km where it is best defined, is found to be closer to an exponential distribution in character than a power-law. We then develop a statistical model, based on the assumption of a steady state, for converting the distribution of active JFCs to the SFD of the source population among the TNOs. The model includes the effects of devolatization (that produces a large sub-class of defunct nuclei) and surficial mass-loss. Comparison with available TNO observations shows that to simultaneously attain continuity with the data on objects in the hot TNO population (Fuentes et al. [2010]. Astrophys. J. 722, 1290–1304), satisfy constraints on the number of TNOs set by the occultation detections of Schlichting et al. (Schlichting, H.E. et al. [2012]. Astrophys. J. 761, 150), and to remain within upper limits set by the Taiwanese–American Occultation Survey (TAOS; Zhang et al. [2013]. Astron. J. 146, ID 14, 10pp.) the total JFC population must contain a large fraction of small defunct nuclei. The effective power-law index of the inferred TNO differential SFD between 1 and 10km is −4.5±0.5 indicating a population in this range that is not in fully relaxed collisional equilibrium. We conclude that the cometary nuclei so far visited by spacecraft and many JFCs are primordial accreted objects relatively unaffected by collisional evolution. We find a turndown in the slope of the predicted TNO cumulative distribution near 1km radius rather than near 10km that is seen in many TNO evolutionary calculations. This may or may not represent the onset of a collisional cascade.