Abstract
Abstract This paper aims at forecasting the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo, using a qualitative forecasting method, a Delphi questionnaire. The authors examined consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and twenty remittance receivers per country, in three subsequent rounds–two on the same group and a third cross-round. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With less consensus, the results forecast that emigration will decelerate, except in Serbia. Emigration effects for the society have been forecast as predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecast to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania. Consensus has been reached, except in Macedonia, that remittances will support labour market activity.
Highlights
The Western Balkans6 have been always known by facing large emigration rates and having large diaspora
At the end of 2013, 5.7 million persons originating from the Western Balkans live abroad, bringing the emigration rate at 31.2% (World Bank), ranging from 18.2% of total population in Serbia to a rampant 45.3% in Montenegro
The emigration rate has been at 19.4%, and ranging from 9.1% in Serbia to 38.5% in Albania
Summary
The Western Balkans have been always known by facing large emigration rates and having large diaspora. As Mohapatra and Ratha (2010: 205) note: “While remittances are influenced by all of the above factors, their use in a forecasting exercise is constrained by the lack of reliable forecasts of the future evolution of these explanatory variables.” Mohapatra and Ratha (2010) model remittances in a gravity-like model, whereby the main determinants are incomes at origin and destination, assuming the stock of migrants remains unchanged. Their model correctly predicted the modest decline of remittances following the global crisis. Drbohlav (1996) used a two-round Delphi method on a sample of 70 experts in the first round and 39 in the second one, and obtained rough estimates of the magnitude and timing of the expected East-West migration flows in Europe. Fassmann and Hintermann (1997) and IOM (1998) use large surveys of individuals whereby they were asked about their intentions to leave the country and, based on their responses, a probability is derived on emigration patterns
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