The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain

Abstract

We model pre-euro Spanish monetary policy and use our findings to assess the compatibility of the interest rates set by the ECB since 1999 with Spanish macro-fundamentals. We find that in the 1990s Spain implemented successfully a monetary strategy tailored to its own domestic fundamentals; and by abolishing it to join the euro she has paid a cost in the form of a sub-optimal monetary policy. Our findings suggest that the present turmoil in the market for Spanish government bonds is symptomatic of the risks involved in participating in a monetary union highlighted by the theory of optimum currency areas. We argue in favour of structural reforms increasing Spanish competitiveness, and a cautious approach with respect to the timing of further EMU enlargement.