Abstract
This research aims to simulate the risk paths among critical schedule risks of submarine pipeline projects by identifying and quantifying risk paths. We first identified forty-three schedule risks by literature review and grouped them into three subsets: project participants, project, and environment. Then twenty-three critical schedule risks were ascertained through expert survey and case study. Utilizing Bayesian Network model, six interrelated risk paths on schedule were identified by quantifying conditional probability of critical schedule risks. Considering the interdependent effect of schedule risks, this research identified and quantified the schedule risk paths in submarine pipeline projects, which could provide specific guidance for schedule risk management and improve time performance of projects.
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