The Simplest Government Heuristic of All: Citizens Infer that Governing Parties are Pro-European Union

Abstract

Previous research documents that citizens apply a “coalition heuristic” to infer that governing coalition partners share more similar policies and ideologies than are implied by the statements in their election manifestos. We propose even simpler government-related heuristics citizens can apply to infer party positions on European integration: the current government heuristic that currently governing parties are more pro-Europe than opposition parties, and the long-term opposition heuristic that opposition parties that have never governed are less pro-Europe than opposition parties with previous governing experience. We report theoretical and empirical analyses of survey data from 24 European Union member states, which substantiate that citizens apply these heuristics, which have consequences for citizens’ policy beliefs and their party support. We also find evidence that citizens respond to policy as measured through election manifestos and expert surveys.