Abstract
This paper concerns the mathematical modeling of historical processes; specifically, the temporal dynamics of the Silk Roads described by formal spatial equations. Historical data indicate that the location of the trade routes known as the Silk Roads varied dramatically from epoch to epoch. These changes arose from a number of causes—population oscillations, economic trends, diseases, and warfare—all of which affected the Silk Roads’ geographical location in different eras, and also determined their rise and demise in each epoch. Mathematical simulation predicting the Silk Roads’ location in each epoch could help to distinguish the most significant determinants of their fluctuations and to estimate where and when these factors were especially prominent. In this paper, we examine the hypothesis considered by Jeremy Bentley (1993), who suggested that one of the most important causes of the Silk Roads’ prosperity was the development of large-scale empires across Eurasia. Empires stimulate the exchange of commodities for the rise of supply-and-demand of bulk and prestige goods, construct roads and related infrastructure that encourage trade, and bring stability to vast areas. The model takes these processes into account and demonstrates that oscillations of the Silk Roads’ activities were induced by the rise and fall of large empires such as the Roman, Parthian, and Mongol empires, as well as the Han and Tang dynasties. Its ultimate demise might have been due to the rise of European maritime shipping, which increased ocean trade at the expense of overland, Eurasian routes.
Highlights
Computer simulation of historical events has great promise, given the interest in mathematical applications for social sciences. Formal laws, such as those discovered in physics and biology, that can describe the behavior of social structures do not yet exist; the history of the biological and physical sciences shows that formalization of ideas can lead to testable predictions, which a researcher can reject or refine
In order to estimate this coefficient for the era of the Silk Road, we used data about the journey of Marco Polo, the famous Venetian merchant who traveled to China in the 13th century
It is impossible to expect precise prediction at every point as models do for physics
Summary
Computer simulation of historical events has great promise, given the interest in mathematical applications for social sciences. In order to construct a formal theory, it seems reasonable to consider macro-systems and to work with pre-modern, less-complicated societies This way, we avoid both the problem of long-term prediction (we have information on the “future” dynamics of the pre-modern social systems) and the problem of the human factor (which does not dominate a large-scale system as it does a small one). The problem considered by Beckmann was to find optimal flows, given a distribution of producers, consumers, and transportation costs Beckmann proposed his model of the spatial market under the assumption that “traders must not suffer losses. This means that the gain from trade exactly equals transportation costs...” (Beckmann, Puu 1985: 16) and results in a stationary distribution of commodity flows. Beckmann’s model requires modification and generalization in order to be applicable to the problems of spatial historical dynamics
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