Abstract
Northeast Asia experienced unprecedented abrupt warming in the 1990s since the last century. Based on a robust time series and rank frequency evaluation, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensembles of CMIP5 (MPI-GE5), CMIP6 (MPI-GE6), EC-Earth3 and IPSL-CM6A-LR were identified as the models that best simulate the external forcing and internal variability in observations and represent observations most adequately. The negative-to-positive phase transition of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), combined with the external forcing, can explain 88% [60%−111%] of the 1990s warming. With prescribed anthropogenic emissions in the near future, a phase shift in the AMV to +2 (-2) standard deviation will amplify (weaken) the warming over Northeast Asia by 37% [29%−49%] (19% [15%−25%]). This highlights the importance of natural climate variability in Northeast Asia’s government decision-making and risk management, and emphasizes that only climate models with an adequate representation of forced warming can quantify these contributions correctly.
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