The significance and performance of US commercial property in a post-GFC context

Abstract

PurposeUS commercial property is an important investment opportunity for institutional investors. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of US commercial property (both direct property and REITs) in a mixed-asset portfolio over 1994-2016. The 2009-2016 post-GFC recovery of US commercial property is specifically highlighted.Design/methodology/approachUsing quarterly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of US commercial property over 1994-2016 are assessed. Efficient frontier and asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of US commercial property in a mixed-asset portfolio. Sub-period analysis over 2009-2016 is used to assess the post-GFC recovery of US commercial property.FindingsUS commercial property delivered mixed results over 1994-2016; direct property gave the best risk-adjusted performance, while US-REITs performance was hampered by high volatility. Since the GFC, both forms of US commercial property have delivered stronger risk-adjusted returns with improved diversification benefits, especially in the context of an inter-property investment strategy. However, US-REITs did not improve their diversification benefits with the stock market over this period. This sees US commercial property as an important component in the US mixed-asset portfolio in the post-GFC environment, with a much stronger role exhibited by US direct property in the post-GFC mixed-asset portfolio.Practical implicationsUS commercial property emerged from the GFC as a stronger and more robust property investment opportunity, with both the direct property and US-REITs fully recovered to their pre-GFC performance level in 2012. The results highlight the major role of US commercial property in a US mixed-asset portfolio in the post-GFC context. The superior risk-adjusted performance of US commercial property sees both direct and listed US commercial property contributing significantly to the mixed-asset portfolio throughout the entire risk-return spectrum, particularly direct property. Given the increased capital flows into the US property market since the GFC, this is particularly important as many investors, both local and international, use direct and listed property investment opportunities as conduits for their significant US commercial property exposure.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published empirical research analysis that specifically assessed the post-GFC performance and role of US commercial property in a mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision making by institutional investors regarding the strategic role of US commercial property in a mixed-asset portfolio in a post-GFC context.