THE SIGNAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY EXTERNAL SUSTAINABILITY: INDICATORS APPROACH

Abstract

In the paper, the signal system of Ukraine’s economy external sustainability is considered. For this purpose it is presented the Ukraine’s economy external sustainability indicators system that consists of 40 indicators that are divided into five groups: macroeconomic indicators; indicators, characterizing the current account position; indicators, characterizing the capital account position; debt indicators and indicators, characterizing the influence of the external sector. Based on the signal approach, the threshold percentiles, the probabilities of instability occurrence due to external disturbances and the noise-signal ratio for each indicator of external sustainability for the Ukrainian economy are calculated. The results of the noise-signal ratio calculations showed that their values for 21 indicators are quite high but less than one. Based on analysis of indicators’ signals, there is a clear tendency of more accurate identification of the volatility since 2008. For the overwhelming majority of indicators the probabilities of an unstable situation arising due to the signal from the indicator are high and exceed 50%. The probability of an unstable situation occurring without indicators’ signals for all external sustainability indicators except one also exceeds 50%. In addition to it for each of the five groups of indicators and the indicators’ system in a whole the average probabilities of unstable situation occurrence is calculated under the condition of a signal from indicators and without it.