Abstract
The average phase factor of the QCD fermion determinant signals the strength of the QCD sign problem. We compute the average phase factor as a function of temperature and baryon chemical potential using a two-flavor NJL model. This allows us to study the strength of the sign problem at and above the chiral transition. It is discussed how the $U_A(1)$ anomaly affects the sign problem. Finally, we study the interplay between the sign problem and the endpoint of the chiral transition.
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