The Short-Term Passenger Flow Forecasting of Urban Rail Transit Based on Holt-Winters' Seasonal Method

Abstract

Firstly, the time-varying characteristics of urban rail transit flow cycle are analyzed. Then the Holt-Winters' seasonal method is proposed to adapt to the short-term forecast of urban rail transit passenger flow. Finally, the urban rail transit in Beijing is taken as an example to predict the short-term passenger flow, using SPSS 24.0 software. It is proved that the method is simple and easy to implement, and can well adapt to the seasonal characteristics of urban rail transit passenger flow, and can also forecast passenger flow at intervals (such as every other week or every other month) to reserve time for preparing the rail transit plan.