The short-term intermittency evaluation of distributed photovoltaic power

Abstract

Uncertainty of distributed photovoltaic(PV) power brings great challenges to the safe and stable operation of power system, in which the intermittency problem is more challenging than the fluctuation. This paper focuses on the intermittency problem of distributed PV power, firstly, an intermittency evaluation method based on generalized extreme value(GEV) theory is proposed to solve the problem of the lack of "small-sample big-gap" events. Secondly, focusing on high risk events such as high-frequency and warning mutation events, probabilistic evaluation indexes were established, including T-hour-period mutation intensity and T-hour-period mutation frequency. Finally, a two-dimensional joint probability distribution of intermittency elements is established, and the concepts of return period and return level are introduced into the photovoltaic field to provide data support for the configuration of energy storage capacity and duration, and to provide auxiliary decision-making for the execution time and development cycle of interactive projects. The proposed method provides a solution for intermittency evaluation in small sample status quo with strong data compatibility and engineering replicability.