Abstract
According to recent European estimates, the life expectancy of broadcasting as a free-to-air television platform is not more than 15 years. BBC, Yle and the UK regulator Ofcom have reached this conclusion in their reports about the future of news, media distribution and digital terrestrial television. Although broadcasting is seen as necessary until 2030, all three assume that digital terrestrial television can – under certain conditions – be replaced with delivery using internet protocol. However, it seems that the idea of IPTV taking over digital terrestrial television is just a sophisticated version of ‘black box fallacy’, driven by the expected growth of the new media ecosystem. The problems in replacing a socio-technological system have largely been neglected.
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