Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is become more serious on a global scale and has become one of the main reasons causes shoreline changes, and erosion, even on an extreme scale can cause the sinking of coastal areas and islands. It was recorded that many big cities were damaged by SLR. The Bruun rule is the most widely used method for predicting the horizontal translation of the shoreline associated with a given rise in sea level. In this study, however, the change in the average shoreline at the convex beach, which is more vulnerable to erosion due to sea level rise, is investigated. The increase in water depth by sea level rise causes a change in the wave crestline, ultimately leading to a linearization of the shoreline. In general, it is assumed that the annual average shoreline is parallel to the annual mean wave crestline. Moreover, assuming that the equilibrium depth contour is formed according to the crestline, the retreat of the shoreline is predicted. The shoreline change is indirectly predicted through the wave crestline deformation obtained from a wave model and this method is applied to the convex beach. Our result showed that for a convex beach with a length of 1 km has open ends with free littoral drift at both ends, the sea level rise of 1 m cause the erosion of 10 m in the protruding area, and the sea level rise of 2 m causes erosion of 23 m. However, if the convex beach is blocked at both ends, sea level rise of 1 m causes the erosion of 6.3 m in the convex area, but the shoreline advance of 3.8 m at both ends, and if the sea level rise of 2 m occurs, the erosion of 14.3 m can occur in the convex area and shoreline advance of 8.6 m can occur at both ends.

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