The Shifting Face of Violence

Abstract

ly peaceful times. Organized violence was throughout most of history, both in absolute and relative terms, a much more prevalent part of mankind’s daily life than today— from antiquity to the twentieth century. European integration has pacified the old continent. The creation of the United Nations has provided us with an instrument of collective security that can, if permitted, work. The threat of an all-out nuclear exchange has receded. Still, conflict, in its traditional form of organized violence between two states or coalitions of states, continues to exist. Examples include the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the U.S. campaigns against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and the possibility of a U.S.-Israeli attack against Iran’s emerging nuclear capabilities. A significant amount of the world’s military power and arms procurement is still invested in coping with such contingencies. It cannot be excluded that the risk of traditional conflict might grow again in the years to come. Should the United States—in many respects the world’s de facto hegemon—be perceived as being increasingly tied down in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly other critical hot spots, and thus be seen as unable (or unwilling) to react to new challenges, then the temptation would develop for many to seize the initiative and create military faits accomplis. One may argue that the Iranian nuclear program is just such an attempt. Most conflicts in the twenty-first century, however, are no longer of a traditional nature. They are no longer fought between states, but between a government and such forces as politically or ethnically based militias and armed bands, guerrilla or terrorist organizations, clans, warlords, organized communal groups, or simply criminal gangs. An increasing number of conflicts are even being conducted between such groups themselves—with little, or only indirect, government involvement. The phenomenon of disintegrating, failed, or faltering states—from the Western Balkans and Somalia to West Africa and Darfur—has led, particularly in the second half of the 1990s, to violence at a level unheard of for quite some time. We are confronted by a multiplication of actors, issues, and means, leading to new conflict patterns and an increase of conflicting matters at stake. The trend will continue to build in the next 25 years. Such non-traditional conflicts, moreover, prove difficult to extinguish. The most striking example is clearly the ongoing strife between Israel and the Palestinians. Theodor H. Winkler is the director of the Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces in Geneva with the rank of ambassador and previously served as head of the Division for International Security Policy of the Swiss Department of Defence.