Abstract
Lay AbstractDevils Hole is an open, water‐filled fault in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge that is home to the world's only population of endangered Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis). In 1995, the population of Devils Hole pupfish began to decline, and to date no single cause for this decline has been identified. This article examines the influence of water temperature on the Devils Hole pupfish population by considering a part of the habitat that is critical to the pupfish's reproductive cycle: the shallow shelf at the south end of the pool. A mathematical model of the shallow shelf is used to examine the daily patterns of water flow and temperature change that result from the daily cycles of air temperature and solar radiation. The model matches well the data collected during this and other studies and shows that the shallow shelf of Devils Hole will respond to small changes in air temperature. Over the past 30 years, the southwestern United States has experienced an increase of up to 2 °C in average air temperature, and this increase has the potential to negatively affect the population of Devils Hole pupfish. The changes in local climate over this time period may have contributed to the decline of the Devils Hole pupfish population.
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