The ShakeOut Scenario: Meeting the Needs for Construction Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete

Abstract

An Mw 7.8 earthquake as described in the ShakeOut Scenario would cause significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Over 6 million tons of newly mined aggregate would be used for emergency repairs and for reconstruction in the five years following the event. This aggregate would be applied mostly in the form of concrete for buildings and bridges, asphalt or concrete for pavement, and unbound gravel for applications such as base course that goes under highway pavement and backfilling for foundations and pipelines. There are over 450 aggregate, concrete, and asphalt plants in the affected area, some of which would be heavily damaged. Meeting the increased demand for construction materials would require readily available permitted reserves, functioning production facilities, a supply of cement and asphalt, a source of water, gas, and electricity, and a trained workforce. Prudent advance preparations would facilitate a timely emergency response and reconstruction following such an earthquake.