The senility tsunami in Iran

Abstract

One of the achievements of the 21st century is the aging population (Angus and Reeve, 2006). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), senility is passing the 60th birthday (Bengtson and Allen, 2009). According to forecasts, by 2050, the population of the world 65-year-old age group will reach over 1.4 billion people from 550 million. It means that the world's aging index, rising from 24 people in 1950 to 33 people in 2000, will increase to 101 people in 2050 (Christensen et al., 2009). Currently, due to lower birth rates, increased life expectancy, health promotion, and disease detection, Iran is also in the age structure transition phase of the population from youth to senility (Noroozian, 2012). Therefore, elderly people are considered as the largest population group in Iran. According to the census conducted in 2016, the ratio of the elderly of Iran reached 6.1% in the past five years from 5.7% (Yearbook, 2017). It is anticipated that by 2050, the Iran’s elderly population will reach 31.5% of the total population of the country (Yearbook, 2013, 2017). Due to the WHO, the world's elderly population will reach 21.5% in 2050 and 24% in Asia (Organization, 2009), according to which the population of the elderly people in Iran will be higher than the whole world average and the Asia average till 4 years (Yearbook, 2017). This demographic crisis in Iran can be called the senility tsunami, which can be debatable in various aspects including social, economic, health, medical, and political, in developing countries like Iran.