Abstract
Abstract We measure selection among high-skilled emigrants from Germany using predicted earnings. Migrants to less equal countries are positively selected relative to nonmigrants, while migrants to more equal countries are negatively selected, consistent with the prediction in Borjas (1987). Positive selection to less equal countries reflects university quality and grades, and negative selection to more equal countries reflects university subject and gender. Migrants to the United States are highly positively selected and concentrated in STEM fields. Our results highlight the relevance of the Borjas model for high-skilled individuals when credit constraints and other migration barriers are unlikely to be binding.
Highlights
I NTERNATIONAL migration of high-skilled individuals has risen dramatically in recent decades (Docquier & Rapoport, 2012)
We show that our results are not driven by our particular measure of earnings inequality or potentially confounding factors that may be correlated with cross-country inequality
21 We reject that the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of migrants to more equal countries dominates the home CDF at the 5% level
Summary
I NTERNATIONAL migration of high-skilled individuals has risen dramatically in recent decades (Docquier & Rapoport, 2012). We show that migrants to Austria and Switzerland, two countries with higher earnings inequality than Germany, are positively selected, as predicted by the Roy/Borjas model. These countries provide a useful setting to test for migrant selection because migration costs are low: the two countries share a border with Germany, are predominantly German speaking, and have broadly similar labor market institutions, benefit systems, and cultures. As predicted by the Roy/Borjas model, emigrants from Germany to the United States are positively selected compared to nonmigrants. The observed selection patterns underline the relevance of the Roy/Borjas model in this setting
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