The Security Debate in Japan

Abstract

OR Japan the 1970s was a decade of 'shocks' and has raised doubts F about its basic postwar policy of economic growth and passive diplomacy under the protection of American military power. The shocks were the result of fundamental changes in the international environment. The first change appeared in the economic sphere, where acute friction with the other industrialised economies began to surface at the end of the 1960s. This was followed in 1973 by the first of the so-called 'oil shocks', signalling a shift in the balance of economic power towards the resource-rich countries. In recent years a further set of issues in the economic field has arisen because of the challenge from the newly industrialised countries in Japan's established markets. The second major change was political in character associated with the apparent decline of American power in Asia-one of the direct consequences of which has been the Western rapprochement with China and the emerging Sino-American entente. Corresponding to these developments has been the greatly increased visibility of Soviet policies and military power in Asia. Yet, after a decade of buffetings from outside and of political uncertainty within, Japan is entering the new decade as it entered the previous one: with the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) once again in firm control of the Diet' and with a prime minister known for his skills as a behind-the-scenes party manager but not for any pronounced views on policy. The apparently inevitable decline of the faction-and-scandal-ridden LDP forecast in recent years has simply not happened. This is further proof, if proof is needed, of Japan's basic social and political stability. If, as may well be, the 'shocks' of the 1970s are going to be followed by the 'decisions' of the 1980s, those decisions will be made in response to the world outside and not as a result of pressures for change from within. It is external events that are forcing the Japanese to reexamine the foundations of their diplomatic and security policies.