Abstract

SOME months ago it became apparent that important basic industries were lagging behind in the process of economic recovery which seemed to be under way in the United States. Throughout the entire depression trade has been slackest and unemployment greatest in industries producing durable goods. This has occurred in spite of the efforts of our governments, federal and local, to carry through ambitious programs of public works; and it becomes very striking when the low level of production in these industries and others largely dependent upon them is compared with the levels recently obtaining in industries that produce goods of a relatively perishable character. The employment indexes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that a group of large industries producing such commodities as beverages, butter, meat and meat products, wirework, explosives, chemicals, soap, and rubber goods (other than tires and shoes) were in November employing numbers of laborers that ranged from 2.7 to 36.6 per cent in excess of the number employed in the basic year (I926) used in constructing the index. In exceptional cases, where for special reasons there exists a very strong upward trend, much higher increases are recorded, ranging from 69.3 to I89.I per cent. But, when one turns to industries producing durable goods such ,as cast-iron pipe, steam fittings and heating apparatus, structural metal, agricultural implements, railroad cars, locomotives, lumber, brick, tile, cement, and stone, the number of people employed last November ranged from 20.2 to 50.0 per cent of the number employed in the base year I926. Equally startling is the record of industrial production shown by the Federal Reserve Board's index which, unlike the employment data just used, is adjusted for seasonal variation. Production of consumption goods such as textiles, shoes and leather, rubber tires, food products, paper and printing, tobacco, and petroleum products ranged last October or November1 from 89 to I52 per cent of the production in the base years (I923-25). At the same time production of iron ore, lumber, automobiles, cement, iron and steel, lead, and zinc, ranged from 23 to 72 per cent of average production in the years chosen as a base. It is too clear for all doubt or cavil that, in considering what should be done with the Securities Act, we must take into account the fact that industries producing either durable consumers' goods the marketing of which requires the use of consumers' credit, or capital goods the sale of which depends upon the ability of industries to finance their capital requirements, will be seriously affected by any measure that restricts the flow of capital into industrial enterprise. The unfavorable showing of this important group of industries is one of the discouraging factors in an economic situation which upon the whole shows decided improvement. No single cause accounts for it. Provisions in some of the codes, by which restrictions are placed upon the introduction of new machinery or effort is made to restrict excessive production, cannot but react unfavorably upon certain basic industries. Debasement of our currency, beside impairing general confidence, makes it difficult to look very far ahead, and so injures the construction industry and others dependent upon it. Finally the Securities Act of I933 interferes seriously with the flow of capital into industries that require financing upon any substantial scale. The Act is not the only reason for the extremely small volume of financing in I933, but it reacts unfavorably upon the very industries that now lag behind the general economic recovery. The need of federal regulation of security issues is patent, and the general procedure prescribed by the Act seems appropriate and effective. The difficulty is that some of its provisions impose liabilities that issuing houses and security dealers would be foolish to assume. In investing one's own funds it is impossible to avoid mistakes, and the same is true with the business of buying securities for sale to others. The facts presented in any prospectus or oral communication are frequently of a sort that does not admit of exact determination but must depend upon someone's judgment which, with the best of intentions, may turn out to be bad. To sustain the burden of proof that he did not know, and in the exercise of reasonable care could 1 In some cases November figures are not yet available.

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