Abstract
In this paper, the monthly rainfall statistical data of Nanning City, Capital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, from 2006 to 2018, were collected. On the basis of qualitative analysis of the rainfall seasonal changing law, the non-linear seasonal rainfall forecast model on Nanning City with the method of Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR) was established by the statistical analysis software Office Excel 2013. The model was used to predict the rainfall in spring, summer, autumn and winter in Nanning in 2019. The results were: 286.41 mm, 695.79 mm, 292.20 mm and 118.11 mm, respectively. It was also found that the predicted results were consistent with the seasonal distribution characteristics, annual distribution characteristics and the trend of historical rainfall time series fluctuation, through the qualitative analysis of figures. Compared with the actual measured rainfall data of Nanning City in 2019 in the China Statistical Yearbook (2020), the predicted values are basically consistent with the measured values.
Highlights
The time series is a sequence of objective numbers arranged in chronological order
It was found that the predicted results were consistent with the seasonal distribution characteristics, annual distribution characteristics and the trend of historical rainfall time series fluctuation, through the qualitative analysis of figures
The model was used to predict the rainfall in each season in 2019
Summary
The time series is a sequence of objective numbers arranged in chronological order. It contains the rule of a certain phenomenon changing with time in the objective material world. The data of rainfall prediction are mainly based on ground observation stations and satellite radar meteorological data for short-term and imminent prediction [11] [12]. There are problems such as uneven distribution of stations, inconsistent length and poor continuity of observation data series, which restricts the reliability of prediction and the accuracy of medium and long-term rainfall prediction. On the basis of qualitative analysis of the rainfall seasonal changing rule, the non-linear seasonal rainfall forecast model on Nanning City with the method of Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR) was established by the statistical analysis software Office Excel 2013 [17]. This tool can be calibrated in other regions
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