Abstract

ABSTRACT The quest for high-redshift quasars has led to a series of record-breaking sources, with the current record holder at z = 7.642. Here, we show how future detections of z > 8 quasars impact the constraints on the parameters for black hole growth and seed models. Using broad flat priors on the growth parameters (Eddington ratio $\, {f_{\rm Edd}}$, duty cycle ${\cal D}$, seed mass M•,seed, and radiative efficiency ϵ), we show that the large uncertainties in their determination decrease by a factor ∼5 when a quasar’s detection redshift goes from z = 9 to z = 12. In this high-redshift regime, ϵ tends to the lowest value allowed, and the distribution for M•,seed peaks well inside the heavy seed domain. Remarkably, two quasars detected at z > 7 with low accretion rates (J1243+0100 and J0313–1806) already tighten the available parameter space, requiring $M_{\rm \bullet , seed} \gt 10^{3.5} \, {\rm M_\odot }$ and ϵ < 0.1. The radiative efficiency is a crucial unknown, with factor ∼2 changes able to modify the predicted mass by ∼3 orders of magnitude already at z ∼ 9. The competing roles of inefficient accretion (decreasing ϵ) and black hole spin-up (increasing ϵ) significantly impact growth models. Finally, we suggest that yields currently predicted by upcoming quasar surveys (e.g. Euclid) will be instrumental for determining the most-likely seed mass regime. For example, assuming thin-disc accretion, a detection of a quasar with $M_\bullet \sim 10^{10} \, {\rm M_\odot }$ by z ∼ 9–10 would exclude the entire parameter space available for light seeds and dramatically reduce the one for heavy seeds.

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