Abstract
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.
Highlights
The scientific consensus that human activities are the primary driver of global climate change is unequivocal
The effect of the treatment on the expressed need for public action is fully mediated by the intervening variables
Previous research has suggested that perceptions of the scientific consensus play an important role in the formation of public beliefs and attitudes towards climate change and, thatperceptions of the scientific consensus potentially decrease public support for climate change policies [15,16,17,18,19]
Summary
The scientific consensus that human activities are the primary driver of global climate change is unequivocal This consensus is found in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [1], and by several different studies, including surveys of experts [2] and comprehensive reviews of the peer-reviewed literature on climate change [3] [4] [5]. Influential ideological and politically-motivated actors, known as “manufacturers of doubt”, publicly dispute the existence of the scientific consensus [9, 10], including recent media articles such as the “Myth of the Climate Change 97%” [11]. These efforts to undermine public understanding of the scientific consensus have arguably been quite successful, with cascading
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