The scientific challenge of measuring climate change

Abstract

The measurement of global climate change poses grave difficulties for scientific enquiry and policy studies. Attention has so far focused on global warming and the concentration of greenhouse gases and a detailed examination has been made of the critical elements: carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Priority has now shifted to the refining of general circulation models (GCMs) and to the hypothesis testing that they allow. A new challenge must be met: to formulate measurements of the climate consequences of burning fossil fuels, and to identify the burdens that nations must shoulder to retard the process of global climate change. The conclusion is that policy recommendations must be reached under varying conditions of scientific uncertainty; and that a range of contingent policy strategies should be opened to discussion.