The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight

Abstract

Abstract“Values” play an oversized role in strategic foresight: they help define scanning frameworks, direct scanning efforts, inform change driver and scenario development, and underpin change within various systems and domains (e.g., politics, society, etc.). And yet, values are largely understudied within foresight. They are rarely defined consistently or explored with reference to a theoretical model of how values emerge or evolve. Rather, values are researched using dissimilar methods depending on the foresight research at hand, which can lead to gaps in analysis and inconsistency between foresight projects. Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), a social psychological theory that identifies common human moral values, offers a solution. MFT describes six moral values or “foundations”—care, fairness, loyalty, authority, sanctity, and liberty—each explained through the evolutionary development of humanity and detectable across cultures. Within foresight, MFT can be applied to understand and identify shifts in the influence of different values, which can result in more novel and unexpected conclusions. With these potential benefits available, we propose adopting and adapting MFT for use within the foresight to improve the way it approaches, identifies, and utilizes values. Our article unpacks MFT into its core tenets and illustrates how it can be used to inform scanning, change driver development, and scenario construction.