The Russian Far East as a Factor in Russian-Chinese Relations

Abstract

The Russian Far East as a Factor in Russian-Chinese Relations Sherman Garnett (bio) The ultimate shape of Russian-Chinese relations remains hostage to powerful and still unfinished geopolitical processes. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the political and economic transformation of Russia, and the uncertainties surrounding China’s future are playing large roles in shaping the emerging relationship. Both sides have expressed a desire for strong and stable ties and have worked hard to resolve outstanding border disputes, stimulate trade, and promote military and military industrial cooperation. Indeed, some Western observers worry that “for the first time since 1972—China and Russia have better relations with each other than either one of them has with the United States.” 1 While opportunities for Russian-Chinese cooperation are quite real, so are the challenges faced by this relationship. No greater challenge exists for either side than maintaining stability along the more than 4,000 kilometers of land border that these two countries share—particularly the borders in the Far East. 2 [End Page 1] A source of great natural wealth, the border region offers new economic opportunities for both sides. 3 However, the Far East has been a source of tension in Russian-Chinese relations for years, including skirmishes in the late 1960s over disputed sections of the border. Today, the two countries must cope with the emergence of new geopolitical forces, including the movement of populations, shifting patterns of trade, and the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth and power. The decline of Russia’s own power in the region, fundamental changes in the relationship between the center and periphery within the Russian Federation, and the swift transition to an open frontier are also issues which threaten to upset stability in the area. The change in Russia’s fortunes has been so severe that, in the words of one analyst, “the essence of the Russian challenge [in East Asia] is not Russia as a player—but Russia as a problem.” 4 The implications of China’s own political transition is a matter of great debate, but either an assertive or a fragmented China would deeply affect the future of Russia’s Far East. 5 Even under these new circumstances, the Russian Far East is by no means fated to tragedy, particularly if Russia can integrate the region into the dynamic regional economy of the rest of East Asia. If Moscow’s power and political control in the region continue to wane, however, the ensuing friction between regional claimants and outside competitors for the Far East’s wealth—including the United States, Japan, and China—could potentially destabilize all of East Asia. If another power were to replace Russia as the dominant force in the region, it could lead to a fundamental reordering of the world’s economic powers. The tasks ahead for Moscow and Beijing, as well as Washington, are to develop an understanding of the nature of the forces at work in the region and their potential impact on both Russian-Chinese relations and the entire East Asian region; and to devise policies that prevent the region from becoming a new center of great power competition. This essay will consider the basic trends already at work shaping the region and Russian-Chinese relations as a whole. It will also recommend possible Western policy responses to support stability in the region and to keep the Russian Far East from becoming a new source of instability in an already troubled part of the world. [End Page 2] The Legacy of History The roots of the current problems of the Russian Far East can be traced back to Russian and Soviet patterns of colonization and rule. Although Russian sources usually refer to the conquest of an “empty land” by swashbuckling individuals—Ermak the Cossack, the explorers Dezhnev or Bering, and the great entrepreneurs of the Stroganov and Demidov families—the truth is that the vast territory east of the Urals was settled and held by centrally coordinated efforts. This was particularly true in the Russian Far East, where, in the last century and a half, Russian control has been challenged by the Japanese and by western powers, including allied expeditionary forces during and...