Abstract
Scenarios of future development pathways in the Arctic created by groups of experts and stakeholders are an effective way to identify and illustrate possible alternatives and options for this region based on anticipated environmental and socioeconomic changes. Although scenarios that assess development trajectories for the Arctic are becoming increasingly popular, there is a relative lack of regional perspective in foresight exercises devoted to the Russian Arctic. This article presents and discusses development scenarios for the Russian Arctic until 2050 that were built by a diverse group of academics, local officials, Indigenous leaders, and business representatives at a scenario workshop in Naryan-Mar, Russia. The scenarios focus on Russia’s Arctic zone and incorporate future visioning of economic development, international cooperation with the West and China, shipping, human and social capital, and Indigenous peoples’ livelihoods in the context of climate change. We apply a novel circular-axial technique to synthesize and combine the 12 initially created thematic scenarios into four final cross-cutting integrated scenarios that describe alternative futures for the Russian Arctic by 2050: Harmonious Arctic, Self-Reliant Arctic, Resource-Dependent Arctic, and Forgotten Arctic.
Highlights
Scenario building is one of the most important instruments of a long-term strategic foresight for regional development
Unlike other foresight- and goal-oriented approaches, such as strategy planning, forecasting, roadmapping, or risk assessment, which are aimed at creating a singular foresight vision in the process of “predicting the future by accumulating and interpreting patterns from the past to extrapolate models of the future” (Gidley, 2017:2), scenario building is based on the theoretical assumption that a single, predictable future has no grounds in reality
Indigenous Peoples return to their traditional nature management practices and subsistence economy, which become more viable than single-industry urban settlements
Summary
RUSSIAN ARCTIC INTEGRATED SCENARIOS 307 российской Арктики до 2050 года, которые были разработаны на форсайт-семинаре в Нарьян-Маре (Россия). В состав участников форсайт-семинара вошли ученые, представители органов государственной власти, бизнеса и коренных народов Севера. Представленные сценарии сосредоточены на Арктической зоне России и включают в себя видение будущего экономического развития, судоходства, человеческого и социального капитала, международного сотрудничества со странами Запада и с Китаем, а также образа жизни коренных народов в контексте изменения климата. С целью интеграции двенадцати первоначально созданных тематических сценариев была применена новая круговая аксиальная методика, позволившая на их основе синтезировать следующие четыре финальных сценария, описывающие альтернативы будущего развития российской Арктики до 2050 года: «Гармоничная Арктика», «Самостоятельная Арктика», «Ресурсная Арктика» и «Ненужная Арктика». Ключевые слова: Арктика; сценарии; Россия; коренные народы; экономическое развитие; арктическая политика
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