The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Impact on the Food Security of Korea, China, and Japan: A CGE Approach

Abstract

Purpose - In 2021, Ukraine and Russia exported 12% and 17% of global wheat, being significant grain producers and exporters. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine greatly impacts Ukraine’s wheat production and trade. In this regard, this study examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global food security using the computable general equilibrium approach.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - We utilized the global multi-sector standard GTAP model, specifically the GTAP Database Version 11, with a base year of 2017. For this research purpose, the original 160 regions and 65 sectors of the GTAP database were aggregated into 23 regions and 24 sectors. Due to the uncertain nature of the conflict duration between Russia and Ukraine, we designed three scenarios: Slight, Medium, and Severe. Each scenario represents varying degrees of wheat production, trade disruption, and an increase in wheat production by third producers for shocks.
 Findings - The study reveals several effects: real GDP decreases for Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, India, and Georgia, while countries like Egypt, Turkey, Azerbaijan, India, Korea, and Japan experience diminished economic welfare. Russia’s invasion can affect wheat imports of countries like Turkey, India, Mongolia, and Egypt. Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey, and India registered trade surpluses, while others recorded deficits
 Research Implications - The ongoing conflict complicates assessing long-term consequences on global food security. Policymakers are advised to monitor closely, implement strategies to mitigate disruptions, and foster international collaboration to alleviate adverse effects on trade, economies, and food security, particularly of nations heavily reliant on Ukraine’s wheat exports, like Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.