Abstract
The Dominate Cycle is an application of demographic-structural theory in a historical work. It seeks to interpret demographic and economic trends seen in a wide variety of primary sources from Late Antiquity in the context of secular cycles. It attempts to shed light on why the Roman Empire declined and fell in the West and survived in the East, to help resolve one of the longest standing debates in modern historiography.
Highlights
Macquarie UniversityThis article uses the theory of secular cycles to examine the Eastern and Western Roman Empires in roughly 285–700 CE
The work of Peter Turchin over the last decade has shown that population pressure exerts a powerful influence over socio-political instability, historical events, and the ebb and flow of state power.1 The dynamics can be identified in cycles of a few hundred years of expansion and contraction.2 One interesting test of theory has recently been done on Pueblo societies by Kohler et al.3 Here is a rough overview of the theory
Turchin states that the expansion phase (27 BC–96 CE), which according to the theory should have been stable, was ‘somewhat marred’ by political instability in the ruling class
Summary
This article uses the theory of secular cycles to examine the Eastern and Western Roman Empires in roughly 285–700 CE. The analysis suggests that the Eastern Empire conforms to an almost ‘standard’ cycle during that time. The Western Roman Empire, on the other hand, appears to expand until 350 CE and decline again, long before the Germanic invasions of the fifth century. This decline may have been due to elite dynamics and the extremely top-heavy social pyramid in the fourth century West. It is possible that demographic-structural theory explains the decline and fall of the Roman Empire
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
