The role played by government communication on the level of public fear in social media: An investigation into the Covid-19 crisis in Italy

Abstract

In situations of crisis, governments must acknowledge that communication is a major weapon in their armoury, and can be used to convince the public to accept sometimes stringent measures, while preventing a worsening of the situation by curbing any spread of panic. Theoretically, during a pandemic, fear can be contained at reasonable levels by governments counterbalancing uncertainty with information. However, there is no empirical evidence on how the flow of information during a crisis can influence emotional states among the population. In this process, social media appears to be a valuable tool for governments to observe emotional response in a population. In the light of this and within the context of the Italian government's social media campaign #iorestoacasa (‘I'm staying at home’) launched during the Covid-19 crisis, the current study utilises text analytics to explore the relationship between government and press communication, and the level of fear expressed by citizens through more than 200 thousand #iorestoacasa tweets. The results highlight how the content of the messages evolved in the early part of the outbreak and during the social media campaign. They suggest that in Italy the discussion regarding the efforts made by the European Council to find common solutions for dealing with the emergency has prompted a positive influence on public mood. Conversely, messages about people's individual vulnerability and the associated sense of an external locus of control correlated positively with levels of fear. This study opens new ways to support government communication during a crisis by monitoring public emotional response through social media.