Abstract
In this work, a two-strain dengue model with vertical transmission in the mosquito population is considered. Although vertical transmission is often ignored in models of dengue fever, we show that effective control of an outbreak of dengue can depend on whether or not the vertical transmission is a significant mode of disease transmission. We model the effect of a control strategy aimed at reducing human-mosquito transmissions in an optimal control framework. As the likelihood of vertical transmission increases, outbreaks become more difficult and expensive to control. However, even for low levels of vertical transmission, the additional, uncontrolled, transmission from infected mosquito to eggs may undercut the effectiveness of any control function. This is of particular importance in regions where existing control policies may be effective and the endemic strain does not exhibit vertical transmission. If a novel strain that does exhibit vertical transmission invades, then existing, formerly effective, control policies may no longer be sufficient. Therefore, public health officials should pay more attention to the role of vertical transmission for more effective interventions and policy.
Highlights
Dengue fever is one of the most important re-emerging vector-borne diseases
A control policy would be evaluated over short, medium and long term time periods, and three years seemed sufficient for our numerical results
We investigate the impact of different values of the relative cost of control (w3 ) on the controlled dengue dynamics
Summary
Dengue fever is one of the most important re-emerging vector-borne diseases. Global travel, and environmental change, public health officials in the world face enormous future challenges from emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases [1]. Over the 20 years with the largest share of the international growth coming from the Asia and Latin America, regions where dengue is endemic, mass transportation is an important factor in the long-range dispersal of dengue [2,3,4,5]. Dengue puts 40% of the global population at risk with 50 to 100 million infections per year [1]. Despite intensive vector control programs, many countries have experienced dengue re-emergence over the last few decades [1,6]
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