The Role of Thresholds and Fine-Scale Processes in Driving Upper Treeline Dynamics in the Bighorn Mountains, Wyoming

Abstract

This research investigates whether abrupt changes indicative of a threshold response occurred in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment within upper treeline ecotones in the Bighorn Mountains of north-central Wyoming, with a particular focus on assessing whether treeline advance occurred. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of tree establishment at multiple spatial scales (local and landscape). Increases in the elevational extent of treeline and tree density above timberline were reconstructed for each decade of the 20th century. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect threshold changes in tree establishment. Marked increases in tree establishment and density occurred at local and landscape scales during the 20th century, particularly during the post-1970 period and in areas above timberline. Varying degrees of treeline advance occurred during this time, yet establishment upslope from timberline was often contingent on the availability of sheltered microsites in the lee of boulders. This highlights the importance of both broad-scale climate inputs and fine-scale site conditions in governing the rate and pattern of tree establishment in high-elevation treeline environments. Overall, the abrupt changes in tree establishment over time and space since 1970 suggest that bioclimatic thresholds can strongly influence ecotonal dynamics at upper treeline.