THE ROLE OF THE MEDIAN LEGISLATOR IN U.S. TRADE POLICY: A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

In this historical analysis of U.S. trade policy, we apply the median voter model to explain legislative decision making. In this model, the level of tariff protection is expected to change with changes in the median legislator. We show that this simple model does a remarkable job if explaining trade policy until the mid‐1930s, when it breaks down. We offer several possible explanations for the breakdown of this model, focusing particularly on the impact of domestic and international institutional changes that may have altered the role of the median legislator in trade policy formation.