The Role of the Gulf in the Longue Durée Of China's Foreign Policy

Abstract

AbstractThis article examines the evolution of China's policy toward the Persian Gulf, linking its contemporary strategies to its historical principles of diplomacy, particularly those rooted in Maoism. It first outlines a conceptual framework that connects China's Gulf policies to the enduring Maoist tradition in its foreign policy. The analysis then delves into Mao Zedong's theory of intermediate zones and its influence on China's strategic posture in the Middle East from the mid‐20th century to today. The focus shifts to the increasing importance of the region, especially the Gulf, in the current iteration of China's intermediate‐zones strategy. Situating China's policies within the context of Mao's anti‐hegemonic stance and the concept of intermediate zones provides a nuanced perspective on the Chinese approach to the Middle East. The authors argue that China's longstanding anti‐hegemonic strategy has hindered the development of a more independent and assertive regional policy. However, they suggest that the recent intensification of the Sino‐American rivalry, the perceived decline in US regional influence, and the “new centrality” of the Persian Gulf may prompt China to adopt a more proactive role in the region, moving beyond its traditional strategy of active defense. This article is part of a special issue examining the responses of Gulf countries to rising Sino‐American competition, edited by Andrea Ghiselli, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, and Enrico Fardella.