Abstract
We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.
Highlights
Global temperatures have increased by an average of 0.85 ◦ C (0.65–1.06) from 1880–2012 [1].The International Panel on Climate Change predicts a further acceleration of global temperature rise, with an additional 1.4–3.1 ◦ C (RCP 6.0) or 2.6–4.8 ◦ C (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century if there is no change to greenhouse gas emissions [1]
Barmah forest virus (BFV) was found to increase with increased minimum temperature based on 0, 2, 3, 4, and 5-month lags in Queensland, Australia [247], and with increasing maximum temperature [248]
A study summarizing 100 years of epidemics found that relationships with temperatures varied by region, with an increase in minimum temperatures being associated with River virus (RRV) in Southern Australia, an increase in RRV associated with a decrease in maximum temperatures in arid parts of Australia, and no strong relationship in tropical northern Australia, where temperatures are routinely suitable for this virus [8]
Summary
Global temperatures have increased by an average of 0.85 ◦ C (0.65–1.06) from 1880–2012 [1]. Temperature has been shown to have a significant influence on the transmission of many infectious agents, including arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) [2,3]. This results from a range of effects of temperature on biological processes influencing host, vector and virus. Viruses were limited to those that (1) are associated with human disease, (2) have a primarily non-human amplifying host, (3) are primarily vectored by mosquitoes, and (4) have at least one study examining temperature effects. Since the epidemiology and ecology of each virus has been adequately reviewed elsewhere (Table 1) we focus exclusively on the influence of temperature on transmission dynamics.
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