The role of teleconnections and solar activity on the discharge of tropical river systems within the Niger basin

Abstract

The behavior of tropical river systems is driven by some internal and external factors. Understanding the role of these external forces, such as large-scale oscillations, on river discharge will provide insight into their dynamic complexities and modelling. In this study, the role of teleconnection patterns and solar activity on river discharges within the Niger basin was considered using both linear (correlation) and nonlinear (multifractal and joint recurrence analysis) statistical approaches. Correlation analysis suggests the existence of a linear relationship between tropical teleconnection patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans with river discharge in the Niger basin. Nonlinear relationships were investigated using multifractal formalism and joint recurrence quantification analysis. A strong nonlinear relationship was observed between the teleconnection patterns and river discharge in Diola while other stations (Koulikoro, Ansongo, Niamey, Mopti, Kirango) showed no such relationship. The observation at Diola is attributed to its location (coastal) among other things. The multifractal strengths were found in the range of 0.58-2.86, suggesting fractal correlations between the parameters. There was no conclusive evidence of a linear and nonlinear relationship between solar activity and tropical river discharge within the Niger basin.