The role of spleen radiomics model for predicting prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients receiving definitive radiotherapy.

Abstract

The spleen plays an important role in systemic antitumor immune response, but whether spleen imaging features have predictive effect for prognosis and immune status was unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate computed tomography (CT)-based spleen radiomics to predict the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) underwent definitive radiotherapy (dRT) and to try to find its association with systemic immunity. This retrospective study included 201 ESCC patients who received dRT. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 142) and validation (n = 59) groups. The pre- and delta-radiomic features were extracted from enhanced CT images. LASSO-Cox regression was used to select the radiomics signatures most associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Independent prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The ROC curve and C-index were used to evaluate the predictive performance. Finally, the correlation between spleen radiomics and immune-related hematological parameters was analyzed by spearman correlation analysis. Independent prognostic factors involved TNM stage, treatment regimen, tumor location, pre- or delta-Rad-score. The AUC of the delta-radiomics combined model was better than other models in the training and validation groups in predicting PFS (0.829 and 0.875, respectively) and OS (0.857 and 0.835, respectively). Furthermore, some spleen delta-radiomic features are significantly correlated with delta-ALC (absolute lymphocyte count) and delta-NLR (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio). Spleen radiomics is expected to be a useful noninvasive tool for predicting the prognosis and evaluating systemic immune status for ESCC patients underwent dRT.