The role of social norms in a model of marriage and divorce

Abstract

In the US, the rate of divorce has increased at an alarming rate since the 1960s. This paper presents a mechanism which gives rise to the emergence of multiple equilibria and a discrete jump in the rate of divorce in a simple search environment. We attempt to show that social norms influence the way each agent searches for a matching partner and hence the probability of divorce. In a low-divorce equilibrium, agents are willing to spend more cost in the search process. As a result, the act of divorce becomes a more accurate signal of unobservable characteristics of a divorced agent. This type of social norms is self-consistent in equilibrium as social stigma attached to divorce is relatively high and this forces agents to be more discreet in the search process. For exactly the opposite reason, a high-divorce equilibrium can also be supported where agents are willing to spend little cost in the search process. In the light of this logic, the rapid increase in the rate of divorce can be seen as a movement from a low-divorce to a high-divorce equilibrium, possibly triggered by a temporary shock.